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Post 0

Saturday, September 17 - 7:41amSanction this postReply
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Andrew,

Kudos on a great article.  This is a great bit:

Faced with these objections, proponents of catastrophic climate change theories have a ready-made response: trust the models, doubt the data. After all, the models must be sound, since a “consensus” of interested scientists has judged them to be so.

Your essay comes down a bit hard on the scientific establishment though, have you cleared that with Marcus? ;-)




Post 1

Saturday, September 17 - 8:01amSanction this postReply
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Andrew,
Very well done.  Fortunately, as an inspiring intellectual movement, the 'viro crowd is done for thanks to Bailey, Bidinotto, Crichton, Ray, Efron, and a host of others -- not to mention the self-correcting tendencies of science and the bald facts.

Mark the date.  The Berlin Wall of environmentalism is coming down.

Jeff




Post 2

Saturday, September 17 - 11:10amSanction this postReply
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Yes, that is the good news - that there are several well-written works - well publicized - which rebuke these enviro-religionists; and thanks too to the Internet, there is an influx of information spewed all over the globe enlightening those interested - who in turn pass it to the masses... all this despite the intense opposition...  after all, the mass media no longer has the stranglehold [if indeed it ever  really did] it once claimed, and many editorials and guest articles and letters-to-editors give forth the reasoned viewing on these matters... I agree - the eco-berlin wall will soon fall...



Post 3

Saturday, September 17 - 11:19amSanction this postReply
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Absolutely LOVED it, Andrew! What conceptual precision! What exacting justice! I totally agree with your evaluation of Scientific American magazine.

I have a less precise, more caustic letter-to-the-editor (of Scientific American), one regarding paleolithic diets. I entitled my letter: Unscientific American? It was aimed at taking down a top researcher who's article totally pissed me off.

The issue regarded which foods were required for the evolutionary differentiation of man from ape. This top-researcher knucklehead's championed hypothesis: potatoes (and other carbohydrates)! In my polemic response, I insinuated (this is the caustic, imprecise part) that he was in bed with Big Food/Big Gov.

Because the USDA is a government agency beholden to individual food companies, as well as to public health -- Big Food always entails Big Gov (ie. there is an inherent fascism -- a fascism that, in Rand's words, "cannot be used honestly" -- to the present dynamics of the USDA).

Ed



Post 4

Saturday, September 17 - 11:22amSanction this postReply
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The problem with the food hypothesies is that the plants which existed back then were a far cry from what is known today...



Post 5

Saturday, September 17 - 12:11pmSanction this postReply
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Ed,

There was some evidence that plants of the nightshade family, including potatoes, were originally domesticated as shamanic halucinogens and only later were processed by cooking for use as foodstuffs. A vague recollection - but you are welcome to google it for ammo against the high-carb paleodiet hypothesis.



Post 6

Saturday, September 17 - 12:31pmSanction this postReply
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Thanks Adam! I will look into that.

Actually though, if you think about it, mere conceptual inspection of this argument (as you have worded it!) precludes the potato, etc as the 'seed-bed' for Big Brains (human brains; which utilize 3x more metabolic fuel than ape brains).

It all lies in the word "domesticated" -- a distinctly human action. In short, in order to domesticate anything, supra-ape brain capacity (the bromide "missing link" serves as operational here) is required.

My point, really, was about how statist profiteering (making money via initiating force) and animal rights activism, have influence that extends (read: infects) into the very scientific realm which serves as the conceptual base for human decision making. Animal food is the ONLY plausible foodstuff that could have ever led to evolutionary encephalo-differentiation.

Sorry to hijack this thread, Andrew, but please forgive me on the basis that my "beef" (pun intended) with Sci Am is similar to yours!

Ed



Post 7

Saturday, September 17 - 12:40pmSanction this postReply
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Great article, Andrew. Sock it to 'em.



Post 8

Saturday, September 17 - 4:35pmSanction this postReply
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He did! Excellent, young Bissell!



Post 9

Saturday, September 17 - 9:46pmSanction this postReply
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Andrew,

I just read it. I liked it.

Bonk.

Michael





Post 10

Sunday, September 18 - 12:44amSanction this postReply
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Hats off to ya, Andrew.



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Post 11

Sunday, September 18 - 7:02amSanction this postReply
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Ed,
Animal food is the ONLY plausible foodstuff that could have ever led to evolutionary encephalo-differentiation.
Having researched this a bit, I don't see good evidence for it (or, so far, for the thesis in that Sci-Am article either). I don't want to further digress from this thread, so if you wouldn't mind finding that Sci-Am articles and your comment in response to it, I will pick this discussion up elsewhere. It's okay if you don't want to. It's up to you.

About Andrew's article, it sounds mostly like a smear campaign. If the article were to offer something more of substance, it could've dealt with something like, "why we should trust satellite data over computer modeling." Often, it would appear that computer modeling is more helpful to us in forming predictions because it's easier to isolate possible causal factors with them, and somesuch computer models predicted global warming accurately only after adding in humans as a causal factor. The article could've also dealt with something like, "why the refutations of the refutations of the science of global warming are wrong." Don't think mainstream global warming scientists have ignored their counterparts. Much criticism has been addressed. Some of the criticism has been accepted, some rebutted.

Finally, I'd like to suggest that while the cause of global warming is interesting and worthy of exploration, it should not be the focal point for discussing the phenomenon. Instead, we should concentrate on identifying the problems we'll face with global warming -- because the data are fairly strong that it is happening, regardless of cause -- and we should figure out what actions (if any) humans can take to effectively combat those problems. As goal-oriented folks, Objectivists should be the first to head this effort: to worry about solutions, not causes.

Jordan




Post 12

Sunday, September 18 - 8:25amSanction this postReply
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Jordan,
Would you make the same points in response to Crichton's lecture on the subject?

http://www.perc.org/publications/articles/Crichtonspeech.php

Regrettably, the discussion is not just one among objective scientists debating objective science.  No, that doesn't mean we should engage in dishonest propaganda for the pragmatic purpose of 'fighting the enemy'.  (That's not what Andrew has done here.)

When influential scientists, and others, deliberately ignore data and distort analyses -- as is unfortunately done in this area all the time -- it's appropriate to call them on it.  In doing so, is it necessary, in order to avoid a label of 'smear campaign', to name actual names?  (That wouldn't be difficult, in this case. Carson, Ehrlich, Gore ...) 

(Note: Yes, I know you didn't raise the point about naming names -- I'm anticipating a possible objection, though not necessarily from you.)

Thanks for your calm and reasonable response, though.  If those engaged in the debate were, like you, concerned primarily with the objective facts, sound science, and taking reasonable action based on them, the (social aspect of the) problem wouldn't exist.

Jeff




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Post 13

Sunday, September 18 - 9:21amSanction this postReply
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 Hi Jeff,

 

Crichton’s bit is also, in part, a smear campaign. He paints a nasty picture of environmentalists, rather than their reasons, like when he explains that environmentalism is just Judao-Christian mythology reformulated: 

>We are all energy sinners, doomed to die, unless we seek salvation, which is now called sustainability. Sustainability is salvation in the church of the environment. Just as organic food is its communion, that pesticide-free wafer that the right people with the right beliefs, imbibe.

First, we could just as easily recast this narrative at, say, businesspeople – “We are all consumption sinners, doomed to die, unless we seek salvation which is now called profit. Profit is salvation at the church of the corporation. Just as money is its communion…”  In other words, Crichton is storytelling, not giving sound empirics. Smear.

 

Second, he seems to be attacking the lowest apple on the environmentalist tree. It’s like attacking Christianity by pointing to the crusades, or attacking Objectivism by pointing to [insert the “Objectivist” you think is most nuts here]. Smear.

 

Third, his point to resolve this alleged problem is right on target: Use facts, not faith. But then, the environmental studies I've read appear quite fact oriented, so I'm wondering if maybe his diatribe is better directed toward the media or against that low apple on the environmentalist tree. Or maybe calling them faith-based is just a nasty way of getting us to agree that they're wrong.

When influential scientists, and others, deliberately ignore data and distort analyses -- as is unfortunately done in this area all the time -- it's appropriate to call them on it. 

It's not clear to me that they're unfairly ignoring or deliberately mis-analysing, but I do sympathize with your point. It's fair to question scientists, not just their science. I just think investigating the messenger calls for the same type of empirical inquiry as investigating the message.

 

Jordan 




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Post 14

Sunday, September 18 - 9:49amSanction this postReply
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Jordan,

Did you know logic is the least effective persuasion technique for people in general? If Crichton or Andrew had been writing for a scientific journal, their comments would be out of place. As rhetoric, though, both pieces are quite good.

Sarah



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Post 15

Sunday, September 18 - 9:57amSanction this postReply
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Sarah,

Fair enough - their pieces are indeed good rhetoric. Incidentally, I'd love to see some studies on the effectiveness of different types of persuasive techniques (including appeal to logic). Know of any?

Jordan




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Post 16

Sunday, September 18 - 10:50amSanction this postReply
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Jordan,

A quick google turned up this.

It's Hugh Rank's site about countering malicious persuasion. Not a study, I know, but he has written quite a bit on persuasion (pathos!). Maybe it'll be a starting place if you want to look into more yourself. Unfortunately, I've got graduate entrance exams I've got to study for (ack!).

Sarah



Post 17

Sunday, September 18 - 1:25pmSanction this postReply
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Crichton was attacking enviromentalism by pointing out their essence - thus is not a smear - the same with Bidinotto's writings...


and Andrew's...

(Edited by robert malcom on 9/18, 1:26pm)




Post 18

Sunday, September 18 - 3:07pmSanction this postReply
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Jordan,
I respectfully disagree about the characterization of Crichton's piece as 'smear'.  To name the moral character of, and epistemelogical methods of, not just some fringe lunatics, but the leading advocates of a philosophical movement, even in unflattering terms, is hardly smearing.

In any case, if it's facts you want (or want Crichton to state), you might read Crichton's latest novel.  As a work of literature it's execrable.  But, reading the appendices, the notes, and the charts scattered throughout provide some pretty persuasive data, and Crichton does a good job of laying it out. (Of course it is a novel and some of it is propagandizing.)  So much for asking Crichton to provide facts and logical argument.

If it's facts and logical analysis you want elsewhere, though you probably have your preferred sources, any of Dixie Lee Ray's books, Bidinotto's econot.com or Ronald Bailey's books should provide a good laymen's round up.

If it's hard core science you're looking for, clearly this forum is not the place to go into depth on that.  The peer reviewed journals is the best source, obviously.

If it's hard core science, when applied to the rhetorician's you're looking for, that's in the realm of psychology and philosophy and then we are back to whether Bissell, Crichton, or others are being sufficiently objective and fact based.  It's difficult to know what you would regard as admissable here.  Does it have to be morally neutral in order to be regarded objective? That sounds like you are giving everyone one in the field a free pass simply because they are labelled scientists. I'm very much against regarding scientists in general as prejudiced -- I've argued against that view in relation to QM, Evolution, among others elsewhere -- but this is, like it or not, a very highly politicized area of scientific inquiry.  I happen to know, from first hand experience, that many who work in the field are not honest in analyzing their findings.  If you have sources, I'd be willing to review them.

I believe your basic point is sound -- get the facts, be reasonable, try to make the clearest case possible even (or especially) in emotionally charged areas.  At the same time we should remember that the overwhelming majority of committed advocates of environmentalism, (and not just the fringe lunatics ), among whom are many scientists who went into that field because they agreed with the philosophy, want humans either dead or at least their society and technology rolled back to a time before the invention of the steam engine.  If they don't say so explicitly, their philosophy certainly implies it, and I believe this is one case where it's true that mistakes of this sort don't occur innocently.  People like that don't get a lot of benefit of the doubt from me.

Jeff




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Post 19

Sunday, September 18 - 5:15pmSanction this postReply
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Hi Jeff,

I think I understand your disagreement. First, I should say that I have a very low threshold for what I consider a smear. Second, in considering Crichton's speech a smear, I laid out a few factors that led me to believe he was smearing: (1) he used narrative instead of empirical analysis; (2) he selected the worst of the group he was criticizing, and he failed to explain why they are the essence or a representative sample of that group; and (3) he casts his opposition in nasty terms without really substantiating the nastiness. His points might well be valid, but he failed to justify them in that speech. And because his points aimed for the environmentalists, rather than their reasoning, my "smear campaign" alarm went off.

That said, I suspect you've read more Crichton than I, so you probably have greater context in which to interpret his speech. Likely, he does use empirical evidence elsewhere. And I should mention that I've shied away from Chrichton's book because (a) I haven't enjoyed reading his other stuff; (b) he's no where close to an authority on climatology or meterology; and (c) I've read some scientific criticisms of his work.

Three more points.

First, I've read enough info on both sides of the global warming fence to get a good idea of where the disagreements are. Like I said previously, we'd be better off concentrating not on 'who dunnit' but on what problems we face with global warming and how or whether we can remedy them.

Second, if we do want to discuss global warming, I'm all for the "hard" sciences. Most of the studies I've read come from peer reviewed journals. That doesn't mean I'm averse to a layperson's critique, but I am more skeptical toward it.

Finally, about this:
 At the same time we should remember that the overwhelming majority of committed advocates of environmentalism, (and not just the fringe lunatics ), among whom are many scientists who went into that field because they agreed with the philosophy, want humans either dead or at least their society and technology rolled back to a time before the invention of the steam engine.
I just haven't seen it that way. Maybe if you're talking about environmentalism among some of today's undergrad students or about the 1970s environmentalism, or maybe about some of the media's portrayal of environmentalists, then I can see what you mean. But I daresay that most of the "environmentalists" that I know about don't want humans dead, nor do they want a technological roll back to pre-steam engine. However, I will concede that I suspect many do want humans to be a bit more careful (for lack of a better word) with how they produce, use, and consume and to shift to various alternative (not pre-steam engine) technologies.

Thank you for your thoughtful and civil response.
Jordan




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